Who wins it all
Every nation's odds to lift the trophy — and how far the engine expects each to go.
Contenders
More than 10% to win it
Runner-ups
Between 1% and 10%
- 3FranceGrp I16.9%9.5%
- 4SpainGrp H17.1%9.5%
- 5PortugalGrp K16.3%9.5%
- 6MoroccoGrp C15.8%8.6%
- 7BrazilGrp C12.3%6.0%
- 8GermanyGrp E9.3%4.6%
- 9ColombiaGrp K5.6%2.8%
- 10United StatesGrp D5.9%2.4%
- 11NetherlandsGrp F5.2%2.4%
- 12JapanGrp F5.5%2.3%
- 13MexicoGrp A5.5%2.3%
- 14BelgiumGrp G4.9%2.1%
- 15AlgeriaGrp J4.8%2.0%
- 16SenegalGrp I4.2%1.7%
- 17South KoreaGrp A4.1%1.6%
Cinderella runs
Below 1% — it would take a fairy-tale
- 18CanadaGrp B2.7%0.9%
- 19CroatiaGrp L2.4%0.8%
- 20Ivory CoastGrp E2.3%0.8%
- 21TürkiyeGrp D2.1%0.7%
- 22AustraliaGrp D2.1%0.7%
- 23UruguayGrp H1.7%0.6%
- 24New ZealandGrp G1.6%0.6%
- 25EgyptGrp G1.5%0.5%
- 26EcuadorGrp E1.5%0.5%
- 27NorwayGrp I1.3%0.5%
- 28PanamaGrp L1.5%0.4%
- 29SwitzerlandGrp B1.2%0.4%
- 30ParaguayGrp D0.8%0.3%
- 31South AfricaGrp A0.9%0.3%
- 32IranGrp G0.8%0.2%
- 33Saudi ArabiaGrp H0.7%0.2%
- 34AustriaGrp J0.5%0.2%
- 35UzbekistanGrp K0.3%0.1%
- 36Congo DRGrp K0.4%0.1%
- 37QatarGrp B0.4%0.1%
- 38CzechiaGrp A0.4%0.1%
- 39TunisiaGrp F0.2%0.1%
- 40IraqGrp I0.2%0.0%
- 41SwedenGrp F0.1%0.0%
- 42HaitiGrp C0.1%0.0%
- 43ScotlandGrp C0.1%0.0%
- 44Bosnia and HerzegovinaGrp B0.2%0.0%
- 45CuracaoGrp E0.0%0.0%
- 46JordanGrp J0.1%0.0%
Bars are proportional to the favourite's title odds; the % is the absolute chance to win the tournament. To-final is the odds of reaching the final. 10,000 simulations · complete result-conditioned L4 at every slider point.