Who wins it all
Every nation's odds to lift the trophy — and how far the engine expects each to go — from 10,000 simulations of the whole tournament.
Contenders
More than 10% to win it
Runner-ups
Between 1% and 10%
- 3FranceGrp I17.0%9.7%
- 4GermanyGrp E13.3%6.9%
- 5PortugalGrp K12.8%6.5%
- 6MoroccoGrp C12.3%6.1%
- 7ArgentinaGrp J11.0%5.5%
- 8BelgiumGrp G10.3%5.4%
- 9BrazilGrp C9.9%5.0%
- 10NetherlandsGrp F9.4%4.5%
- 11SenegalGrp I6.0%2.7%
- 12TürkiyeGrp D4.4%1.8%
- 13ColombiaGrp K4.0%1.7%
- 14Ivory CoastGrp E4.0%1.5%
- 15CroatiaGrp L3.8%1.4%
- 16JapanGrp F2.8%1.2%
- 17NorwayGrp I2.8%1.1%
- 18CzechiaGrp A3.0%1.1%
- 19SwitzerlandGrp B2.9%1.0%
Cinderella runs
Below 1% — it would take a fairy-tale
- 20AlgeriaGrp J2.5%0.9%
- 21UruguayGrp H2.2%0.8%
- 22MexicoGrp A2.2%0.7%
- 23South KoreaGrp A2.3%0.7%
- 24EcuadorGrp E1.4%0.5%
- 25United StatesGrp D1.8%0.5%
- 26EgyptGrp G1.8%0.4%
- 27Congo DRGrp K1.4%0.4%
- 28AustriaGrp J1.3%0.4%
- 29CanadaGrp B1.3%0.4%
- 30TunisiaGrp F0.9%0.3%
- 31IranGrp G0.7%0.2%
- 32SwedenGrp F0.7%0.2%
- 33PanamaGrp L0.4%0.1%
- 34ParaguayGrp D0.2%0.1%
- 35ScotlandGrp C0.4%0.1%
- 36Bosnia and HerzegovinaGrp B0.2%0.0%
- 37AustraliaGrp D0.2%0.0%
- 38Cape VerdeGrp H0.1%0.0%
- 39QatarGrp B0.0%0.0%
- 40Saudi ArabiaGrp H0.1%0.0%
- 41IraqGrp I0.0%0.0%
- 42New ZealandGrp G0.1%0.0%
- 43UzbekistanGrp K0.1%0.0%
- 44GhanaGrp L0.1%0.0%
- 45South AfricaGrp A0.1%0.0%
- 46JordanGrp J0.0%0.0%
- 47HaitiGrp C0.0%0.0%
- 48CuracaoGrp E0.1%0.0%
Bars are proportional to the favourite's title odds; the % is the absolute chance to win the tournament. To-final is the odds of reaching the final. 10,000 simulations · v9 flagship (rung3 recovered), bare model · 10k sims · as of 11 June 2026.